Climate Change Adaptation
Global Temperature Rise
The Effects of Increases in Land Surface Summer Temperature, and Increased Temperature Variability.
The premise of Climate Change is a rapid rate of change in global surface land temperatures. Accepting that premise, the question then becomes ' what is the effect of increases in land surface temperatures and increases in temperature variability? '
To understand this effect of increases in global temperature, consider the Bell Curve as representing the distributation of data. This represetation shows the occurrance of averages, and highs and lows. The highs are like an honours score in an exam; the lows show the failures in the exam. A data set of surface land temperatures over a broad area and time can show similar distribution of "colds" and "hots" in temperature.
Hover the mouse over each graph in sequence, or click on it; to read the notes and theory.
The Bell Curve approach is applied to 60 years of historic to current data on the Temperature and Rainfall page.
Bell distribution curve of a data set, with probability of occurrance on the vertical X axis.
Apply an historic mean land temp. data set to this curve. Now, (current) mean land temp. increases (moves to the right).
The mean temperature increase creates record hot weather (in red) not seen before on the historical climate.
Increase in temp. variability (down red arrow) creates more record hot and cold weather. (dark blue and red areas)
Increase in temp. variability (down red arrow) and increase in mean temp. (red arrow to right) compared to historic climate.
Taken together, the increase in variance and temperature create more record hot weather. (dark red area)